One can only imagine how Benjamin 'Bibi' Netanyahu felt when he woke up this past Wednesday morning. All polls indicated that he was going to have a very difficult job retaining his Premiership, or possibly lose it, in the wake of increased Arab voters and a general discontent over his tunnel vision over a nuclear Iran. He awoke not to a saddened advisor telling him that he had to vacate his government residence within 48 hours but to elation within his party that the Likud had won an incredible 30 seats in the new Knesset. Now, all he had to do was form a coalition and wait for his congratulations phone call from President Obama. He would be waiting some time.
The relationship between Netanyahu and Obama has been frosty at the best of times. It makes sense when you consider the way that each grew up. Obama is a child of multiple cultures, of America, Hawaii and Indonesia, who saw the impact of a capitalist system that trod on the poorest of its citizens. He immersed himself in community organisation, constitutional law and civil rights and rode the path to the Presidency on the coattails of hope, change and an opening up of the welfare state.
Benjamin Netanyahu, however, went the route that was the diametric opposite of his America counterpart. He grew up in a family where all they knew was the persecution of the Jewish people. Benzion Netanyahu, Bibi's father, was a close friend and secretary of Ze'ev Jabotinsky, a major proponent of Jewish self-defence, and a renowned scholar on the expulsion of Jews from Spain. Whilst Obama spent his formative years in Indonesia and Hawaii, Netanyahu spent them in Philadelphia and Israel. Netanyahu enlisted in the IDF and rose to a prestigious position within special forces. He lost his brother to Palestinian terrorists in the 1976 Entebbe hijacking, a loss which would affect any person. Returning to the US and to get his degree from MIT he went to work at the Boston Consulting Group. From there he became Israeli ambassador to the United States and eventually entered Israeli politics. Quite simply, Netanyahu is the antithesis of Obama.
Obama is overtly left-wing though his base has soured against him (refusal to prosecute Wall Street bankers and the lack of oversight in regards to drone strikes among other things) and Netanyahu is overtly right-wing. Hours before the polls were about to close on Tuesday he made a personal plea to the right-wing of Israel saying that Arabs were being bussed to the polling stations in a coordinated effort with the left-wing foreign-backed NGOs.
The two men have never found common ground and any pretense that there was a salvageable relationship between them was dismissed the moment that Netanyahu lectured Obama in his office in front of the world media. With Netanyahu now beginning his fourth term and Obama finishing his second there is no need for the two men to pretend to like each other. The common complaint from the left-wing was that Netanyahu had almost destroyed the US-Israel relationship by his posturing and arrogance. They claimed that his short-sightedness had left Israel vulnerable when they were in desperate need of military and diplomatic support, that Israel would be a pariah in the international community.
But, perhaps Bibi was playing the long-game?
When Obama took office in 2009 there was a world of promise, his supporters and detractors alike were swept up in the idea of hope and change. Obama's first major test in the Middle East came in the form of the 2009 Iranian elections. The protests, the so-called Green Revolution, were broadcast live on television and through social media. As the young students of Iran were being beaten down by the Basij and demanding their right to a free and fair election Obama did nothing. He waited and waited and waited until he saw what was going to happen...then he made a decision to act. This was the beginning of a quasi-isolationist policy that would become his doctrine: wait, see, act. This was the first time that Netanyahu saw exactly who his counterpart was...and he was not impressed.
When the Arab Spring saw the overthrow of several Middle Eastern dictatorships Obama was criticised for throwing several key US allies under the bus. I believe that he has faced undue criticism for his actions (or lack thereof) as these protests were notably secular in nature and were truly needed. Obama must have felt that this was the spark that was needed to fan the flames of democracy in the region. However, he does deserve criticism for not bolstering the student and secular movements and sending advisors to help guide the chaotic governments to democracy and he deserves the condemnation for not stopping Assad when he was massacring his own people. One can only imagine how the Middle East today would be if they had received more support from the Great Satan.
With these constant failures of leadership by Obama; Netanyahu must have become incredibly anxious. Bibi was dealing with his own social protests in 2011 (protests that I proudly took part in) but his eye was always on how Obama would deal with his arch-enemy: the Mullahs of Iran. Netanyahu must have longed for the days of George W Bush and his neo-conservative policies. He must have thrown his hands up in frustration and said "who can we trust?". Then, he would have turned on the news and looked at what was happening in Europe.
It is no secret that there has been a clash between North African, sub-Saharan African and Middle Eastern immigrants in Europe and many non-Islamic citizens of France, Sweden, Italy and other European nations. Burning cars have become a staple of Paris and videos have begun to populate YouTube showing the notable rise of anti-Semitic attacks and attitudes to anyone who looks remotely Jewish. The tensions have led to a rise in far-right parties being elected to parliaments throughout the continent including Golden Dawn in Greece, UKIP in England and the National Front in France.
These groups all hold extreme views in regards to immigration and often find themselves siding with Israel as they see the small Jewish country as the bulwark against Islamic extremism. With the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, more and more European Muslims joining the barbaric terror group and an increase in Islamic attacks against European institutions such as Charlie Hebdo it is no wonder that Netanyahu sees Europe now as his natural allies. No doubt that Bibi hopes European leaders will no longer focus as much on the peace process between him and the Palestinians but instead on the global response to ISIS.
As the tensions in Europe begin to come to a boil, Netanyahu's increasingly fiery rhetoric against ISIS and Muslims will find a natural home in the new, xenophobic Europe. The peace process between the Palestinians and Israel will fall by the wayside as the far-right begins to gain more and more power and influence within the European parliaments. This works for Netanyahu. He wants the world to focus on Islamic State and combating the regional terror group. ISIS's gains in the Middle East stoke fears that they could soon be in Europe and beyond. This is how the right-wing will continue to rise and Netanyahu will be welcomed in every European capital. Obama, meanwhile, will be forced to sit back and watch as the left-wing crumbles in the face of overwhelming domination from right-wing groups. As Europe's right enjoys their renaissance Obama will look at how Netanyahu is treated like a king and he lament the opportunities that he missed.
